Wyzwania dla demokracji środkowoeuropejskich w drugiej dekadzie XXI wieku

The countries of Central Europe (Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary) relatively quickly have reached a level of development that allowed them to be classified as one of the consolidated democracies. This has been confirmed by the evaluations carried out by the best-known indices for measuring the quality of democracy. It is known, however, that the consolidation of democracy is a long-term process, taking place not only in the institutional dimension, but above all at the behavioural level, reflecting the state of public awareness. Consolidation is a meandering process and does not always end in success. What is happening in the countries of Central Europe at the end of the first decade and in the second decade of the 21st century is a sufficient reason to ask a question about the future of their democracies. Referring to the Nations in Transit index, one can notice an increasingly clear trend of weakening democratic development in the region. With this in mind, the article outlines four hypothetical scenarios concerning the future of Central European democracies. They are not necessarily inseparable, but merely show the potential consequences of the phenomena and processes observed. The article is primarily of expository and prognostic character.